Evaluation of Mortality Risk Factors of COVID-19 in Jakarta Tertiary Hospital During Peak of Second Wave and Predictive Utility of Community RT-PCR Low CT Values

Authors

  • Andika Chandra Putra COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital - Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University - Department of Pulmonology and Respiratory Medicine Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta
  • Erlina Burhan COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital - Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University - Department of Pulmonology and Respiratory Medicine Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta
  • Akhdan Aufa COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital, Jakarta,
  • Rika Bur COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital -  Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Hendri Pangestu COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital -  Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Syukrini Bahri COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital - Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University - Division of Tropical Infection, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia - Harapan Kita Hospital, Jakarta
  • Elsye Souvriyanti COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital -  Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Mulyadi Muchtiar COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital, Jakarta
  • Andi Erlina COVID-19 Clinical team, YARSI Hospital, Jakarta
  • Tjandra Yoga Aditama Graduate School of Biomedical Science, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Rika Yuliwulandari Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Indra Kusuma Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Yulia Suciati Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Rifqatussaadah Rifqatussaadah Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Fasli Jalal Faculty of Medicine, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Arief Gusnanto University of Leeds, Leeds
  • Ahmad Rusdan H Utomo Graduate School of Biomedical Science, YARSI University, Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36497/respirsci.v4i2.133

Keywords:

COVID-19, Delta variant, mortality risk factors, PCR CT values, vaccine status

Abstract

Background: The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 led to a surge in COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. This study aimed to assess the demographic profile and mortality rates of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in YARSI referral hospital, Jakarta, comparing pre-Delta and Delta wave periods. The study also investigated whether low CT values in RT-PCR tests indicated heightened viral transmission before the Delta wave surge.

Method: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,457 COVID-19 patients hospitalized at YARSI (January-August 2021) and 25,279 RT-PCR test results from walk-in patients (April-August 17, 2021). Differences were evaluated using Chi-square or Fisher’s Exact Tests while binary logistic regression was used to assess mortality risk factors.

Results: There were increased proportions of pregnant women, patients aged 20-29 and those with coronary artery disease during the Delta wave. This period also showed a significant increase in mortality rates, with the highest seen in patients >60 years old or those with multiple comorbidities. Notably, most of the deceased patients (131 of 139) were unvaccinated. Analysis of RT-PCR data showed rising percentages of positive results with low CT values (below 21 or 15) from April to June.

Conclusion: The Delta wave saw a higher risk of hospitalization among young individuals and pregnant women, despite their low mortality risk. The unvaccinated and those with multiple comorbidities faced higher mortality risks. Increases in RT-PCR positivity with low CT values preceded the July COVID-19 case surge.

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Published

2024-02-15

How to Cite

Putra, A. C., Burhan, E. ., Aufa, A. ., Bur, R. ., Pangestu, H. ., Bahri, S. ., Souvriyanti, E., Muchtiar, M. ., Erlina, A. ., Aditama, T. Y. ., Yuliwulandari, R. ., Kusuma, I. ., Suciati, Y. ., Rifqatussaadah, R., Jalal, F. ., Gusnanto, A. ., & Utomo, A. R. H. . (2024). Evaluation of Mortality Risk Factors of COVID-19 in Jakarta Tertiary Hospital During Peak of Second Wave and Predictive Utility of Community RT-PCR Low CT Values. Respiratory Science, 4(2), 120-132. https://doi.org/10.36497/respirsci.v4i2.133